1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2022	288080	Dice Realms	Current	135	7.71	5.64	2.86
			Estimated	1,000	7.37	6.17	2.41

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
In Dice Realms, players vie to improve and expand their realms, which are represented by customizable dice with faces that can be popped out and upgraded for better ones. Each game is different as during setup, players draw five tiles (from a bag of 35) to determine which extra die faces will be available beyond the five standard lines of faces: victory, farming, commerce, defense, and upgrades. Each player begins with two identical dice and can gain more dice during play, in addition to upgrading their starting dice. Play is mostly simultaneous. To begin, players roll their dice, with one player rolling the Fate die. If Winter appears on the Fate die, all players must pay 1 grain for each die they own or collect a -2 point "misery" chip for each grain they can't pay. Players may then re-roll one die for free, and they can invest in re-roll and "set a die" tokens (that allow you to choose the die face result) for further control. If a re-rolled die shows a re-roll icon, you do power shown on the die and then re-roll it. Players then resolve attacks, starting with any on the Fate die (that hit all players), and then going clockwise from that player, with each player's attack affecting all their rivals. Each shield showing on your dice lets you ignore one attack. Successful attacks can cost players grain, the use of a die for a turn, or the loss of a die face, with that face being replaced with a "destroyed" face (which can be later rebuilt). Players then collect the victory points (VPs), grain, and coins shown on their die faces, with coins being used to purchase re-roll tokens and set-a-die tokens, repair any destroyed die faces, buy a new die -- which also costs 2 grain -- or acquire upgrades. You can save at most 1 coin in your treasury from round to round. Upgrades are the heart of the game. Players receive upgrades from upgrade symbols showing or by spending coins. Die faces have 1, 2, or 4 dots on them. To change from a 1 to a 4 in the same color — such as from a yellow face collecting 2 grain to the 4-dot version that collects 4 grain and 2 coins — costs three upgrades, whereas changing from one face to a different color face at the same level costs just one upgrade. If during a round any player needs to use a 10 VP token, a -10 misery token, or a 10 grain token (because all of the smaller value tokens have been used), then the game ends after finishing that round; otherwise, the player with the Fate die passes it clockwise to the next player and a new round begins. When the game ends, players tally their points earned, both on the VP tokens and on the upgraded die faces, with 2-dot faces being worth 1 VP and 4-dot faces being worth 2 VP. Whoever has the most VPs wins.

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/288080

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Dice Realms? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Dice Realms. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Dice Realms. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2022	288080	Dice Realms	1.00	5.64	7.71	2.41	135
1	2019	254992	Battle of the Bards	0.97	5.62	7.12	2.17	157
2	2018	255020	Rising for the Throne	0.93	5.54	6.41	1.36	172
3	2019	269207	The Taverns of Tiefenthal	0.92	7.24	7.61	2.70	9,530
4	2017	200057	Pioneer Days	0.90	6.40	7.29	2.50	1,811
5	2017	217471	Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Dice Masters: Heroes in a Half Shell	0.89	5.64	7.31	3.00	155
6	2018	242302	Space Base	0.89	7.31	7.59	2.12	12,646
7	2014	126996	King's Forge	0.88	6.14	6.96	2.28	1,521
8	2017	200886	Manaforge	0.86	5.57	7.03	2.75	86
9	2019	253087	Shadowrun: Sprawl Ops	0.86	5.61	6.59	2.60	250
10	2015	219985	DC Comics Dice Masters: War of Light – Collector's Box	0.85	5.54	7.43		34
11	2018	242753	Warhammer 40,000 Dice Masters: Battle for Ultramar Campaign Box	0.85	5.60	7.14	2.50	121
12	2015	171011	Favor of the Pharaoh	0.83	6.28	6.79	2.00	2,787
13	2018	218988	Debtzilla	0.83	5.51	6.19	2.25	46
14	2015	171669	Discoveries: The Journals of Lewis & Clark	0.82	6.62	7.06	2.36	4,661
15	2017	196634	Nightmare Forest: Alien Invasion	0.81	5.52	6.61	1.67	66
16	2016	192934	Colony	0.81	6.06	6.62	2.28	1,842
17	2011	91536	Quarriors!	0.80	6.56	6.75	1.97	13,474
18	2018	248158	Thanos Rising: Avengers Infinity War	0.80	6.33	7.16	2.00	2,205
19	2014	155702	Quarriors! Light vs. Dark	0.80	5.79	6.81	2.13	510
20	2019	181819	Sorcerer	0.79	6.22	7.73	2.90	1,343
21	2007	27162	Kingsburg	0.79	7.02	7.19	2.43	18,903
22	2017	237079	FootClub	0.79	5.53	7.91	3.00	33
23	2017	194594	Dice Forge	0.79	7.05	7.27	1.97	17,766
24	2015	187787	Nerdy Inventions	0.78	5.49	5.47	1.56	334
25	2010	74102	Der Pate	0.77	5.64	6.25	2.36	413

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Dice Realms while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2022	288080	Dice Realms	5.64	1.00	5.64	7.71	2.41	135
1	2019	269207	The Taverns of Tiefenthal	6.65	0.92	7.24	7.61	2.70	9,530
2	2018	242302	Space Base	6.48	0.89	7.31	7.59	2.12	12,646
3	2017	200057	Pioneer Days	5.74	0.90	6.40	7.29	2.50	1,811
4	2017	194594	Dice Forge	5.54	0.79	7.05	7.27	1.97	17,766
5	2007	27162	Kingsburg	5.54	0.79	7.02	7.19	2.43	18,903
6	2019	254992	Battle of the Bards	5.43	0.97	5.62	7.12	2.17	157
7	2014	126996	King's Forge	5.42	0.88	6.14	6.96	2.28	1,521
8	2010	48726	Alien Frontiers	5.42	0.75	7.17	7.39	2.57	14,601
9	2015	171669	Discoveries: The Journals of Lewis & Clark	5.40	0.82	6.62	7.06	2.36	4,661
10	2015	172287	Champions of Midgard	5.31	0.71	7.48	7.76	2.60	15,096
11	2011	91536	Quarriors!	5.25	0.80	6.56	6.75	1.97	13,474
12	2015	171011	Favor of the Pharaoh	5.25	0.83	6.28	6.79	2.00	2,787
13	2017	228341	Pulsar 2849	5.21	0.72	7.24	7.70	3.35	7,261
14	2018	255020	Rising for the Throne	5.17	0.93	5.54	6.41	1.36	172
15	2018	248158	Thanos Rising: Avengers Infinity War	5.04	0.80	6.33	7.16	2.00	2,205
16	2017	217471	Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Dice Masters: Heroes in a Half Shell	5.01	0.89	5.64	7.31	3.00	155
17	2019	181819	Sorcerer	4.91	0.79	6.22	7.73	2.90	1,343
18	2016	192934	Colony	4.88	0.81	6.06	6.62	2.28	1,842
19	2015	138649	DC Comics Dice Masters: Justice League	4.81	0.77	6.29	7.32	2.29	1,394
20	2017	200886	Manaforge	4.81	0.86	5.57	7.03	2.75	86
21	2019	253087	Shadowrun: Sprawl Ops	4.81	0.86	5.61	6.59	2.60	250
22	2018	242753	Warhammer 40,000 Dice Masters: Battle for Ultramar Campaign Box	4.75	0.85	5.60	7.14	2.50	121
23	2014	158275	Marvel Dice Masters: Uncanny X-Men	4.74	0.72	6.62	7.19	2.37	3,763
24	2019	285265	Rune Stones	4.72	0.75	6.28	7.28	2.33	1,460
25	2015	219985	DC Comics Dice Masters: War of Light – Collector's Box	4.71	0.85	5.54	7.43		34

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2022	288080	Dice Realms	Rio Grande Games	Thomas Lehmann	Martin Hoffmann	Dice		Deck, Bag, and Pool Building
					Claus Stephan	Fantasy		Dice Rolling
								Random Production

Individual Game Analysis